Two Portuguese Scientists Identity 8 Areas Of The Greenhouse Gas Hypothesis That Lack Scientific Validation; + The JMA Has El Niño Collapsing Next Year

Cap Allon

Two Portuguese Scientists Identity 8 Areas Of The Greenhouse Gas Hypothesis That Lack Scientific Validation

Despite the clever establishment silencing tactics of putting fingers in ears and yelling “settled science!”, two Portuguese researchers (Khmelinskii and Woodcock, 2023) have identified eight assumptions in the greenhouse gas hypothesis that lack scientific validation.

In an editorial published in the MDPI journal Entropy, responding to an editorial written by the consensus-following editors of the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD), these two plucky scientists lay out their challenges.

Their abstract opens:

“We respond to an editorial article in the climate journal Earth Systems Dynamics (ESD 14, 241–242, 2023): the headline title of which makes two scientifically incorrect assertions: (i) that the greenhouse-gas hypothesis, i.e., cause of global warming by ~1K in 1950-2020, is an established scientific truth, and (ii) that heat emissions from global fuel combustion are, by comparison, negligible.

“Both statements are inconsistent with, and illustrate editorial ignorance of, the laws of classical thermodynamics, of the limitations of the Earth’s global energy budget multivariate computer models, and of the known absorption and emission spectroscopy of carbon dioxide (CO2).”

For the sake of brevity, four of the challenges are summarized below (courtesy of Kenneth Richard, via climatechangedispatch.com):

• CO2 can only absorb 10% of all radiation in the specific IR bands CO2 affects. CO2 “absorbs absolutely nothing at all other IR wavelengths.” Thus, CO2 has no effect on IR in 90% of absorption bands.

• CO2 can only absorb IR in the top 300 m, or 0.3 km of the surface troposphere, which is 10 km thick. Thus, CO2 can only affect 10% of the IR in 3% of the surface troposphere where climate change occurs.

• Because of its vanishingly small effects, doubling CO2 concentrations could only lead to a 0.015°C surface temperature change, at most. Understatedly, “this effect would not even be measurable.”

• Uncertainty in the Earth’s radiation balance is ±17 W/m². The estimated radiation imbalance is 0.6 W/m², which is “orders of magnitude” smaller than the uncertainty in its derivation. Thus, the “global balance of energy fluxes…cannot be derived from measured fluxes“… and this “profoundly affects our ability to understand how Earth’s climate responds to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases.”

“The editors at ESD do not view observational uncertainty –or questions regarding the magnitude of CO2’s effects– as worthy of critical analysis,” concludes Richard.

For a read of Khmelinskii’s and Woodcock’s comprehensive editorial in full, click here.


The JMA Has El Niño Collapsing Next Year

If a period of global cooling is indeed on the cards then we would expect La Niñas to be the dominate ENSO pattern.

Supporting this theory are latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts, which call for a collapsing El Niño next year, dipping below neutral perhaps as early as April, and potentially reentering La Niña territory by next summer:

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As the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) shows (below), multiyear El Niños have not been able to sustain themselves in recent times, not since the ‘super’ El Niño of 1997-98.

Clear to see, it is their cooler counterparts La Nina’s that are starting to dominate:

My contention remains that media pleadings for a strong El Niño will fall on deaf ears, and that instead a swift return to La Niña will play out.

“Weather is beginning to revert back to pre-1982 patterns around the world,” so say Prof David Dilley, who states the key driver as being the return of a 230-year Climate Pulse: “Winters will become colder, longer lasting and more severe,” warns Dilley, “it’s going to be very cold.”

And as the eminent Dr Theodor Landscheidt posited moons ago, author of the study ‘New Little ICE Age Instead of Global Warming?‘ which, for me, has the claim of priority among scientific papers forewarning of a solar-driven spell of cooling:

“We need not wait until 2030 to see whether the forecast of the next deep Gleissberg minimum is correct. A declining trend in solar activity and global temperature should manifest long before the deepest point in the development. The current 11-year sunspot cycle 23 with its considerably weaker activity seems to be a first indication of the new trend, especially as it was predicted on the basis of solar motion cycles two decades ago. As to temperature, only El Niño periods should interrupt the downward trend, but even El Niños should become less frequent and strong.”

Related:

A new research paper (2022) suggests that La Niñas could keep on coming, and, in turn, deliver a snowballing of the climatic woes the phenomenon delivers (such as harsher winters across the N. Hemisphere, and heavy precipitation for the likes of Australia):

New Study: Climate Models Got It Wrong, Eastern Pacific Ocean Is Cooling, La Niña Winters Could Keep On Coming


As a side note, a return to La Nina could lead to a strong hurricane season, so watch out for more misplaced catastrophic cries there.

The day’s other article:

Early-Season Snow Hits Bhaderwah; Proper Polar Plunge To Pound U.S.; Another Embarrassing Activist-Study Achieves Publication; + Lowest Sunspot Number In More Than 6-Months


Further reading (specifically section three on Hunga Tonga’s eruption):

Feet Of Spring Snow Hit New Zealand Snowfields; B.C. And Utah’s Early Taste Of Winter; Hunga Tonga’s Unprecedented Stratospheric Injection Of Water Vapor To Impact ‘Polar Vortex’; + Stronger-Than-Expected CME
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